Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China declared a “no-limits friendship” with Russia, signaling close collaboration in areas like trade, energy, and potentially security. However, over two years into the conflict, the nature of this partnership has evolved, as China rethinks the economic implications of its alignment with Moscow.
Increasingly, discussions within China focus on the sustainability of this relationship. Some voices advocate for a formal alliance, while others call for caution. In a notable shift from 2022, critical assessments of Russia’s economic and political stability are now openly discussed. The cautious tone was evident in May, when language around “no-limits” friendship quietly disappeared from a joint statement, suggesting that Beijing may no longer see Russia as an unconditionally reliable partner. Even during President Putin’s May visit, China’s response was notably reserved, with President Xi Jinping describing Putin only as a “good friend and neighbor,” while Putin referred to them as “close as brothers.”
Economic Factors Prompting China’s Shift
China’s recalibration is driven by several economic factors. One key concern is the economic strain of over-dependency on a country experiencing increasing instability. Russia’s political landscape has raised doubts in Beijing, with recent internal challenges such as the Wagner Group mutiny exposing weaknesses in Russia’s stability and security.
Moreover, China’s own economic slowdown and underwhelming trade outcomes with Russia have cast a spotlight on the limitations of this partnership. Although trade between the two nations reached a record $240 billion in 2023, Russia still represents just a fraction of China’s total trade volume, while China constitutes nearly a quarter of Russia’s trade. This imbalance is sparking conversations in China about reducing economic reliance on Russia and increasing cooperation with other neighboring nations.
In addition, China is reconsidering the economic benefit of maintaining close ties with Russia in light of Western trade relationships. Financial institutions in China have been limiting their connections to Russian markets, fearing Western sanctions. This decision, coupled with the trade imbalance, is prompting Chinese analysts to warn against deepening economic reliance on Russia. They argue that an over-dependency could leave China vulnerable if Russia continues to face economic challenges.
China’s Focus on Economic Stability in a Shifting Global Order
China’s long-term strategy emphasizes stability and gradual transformation within the existing global economic system rather than dismantling it, as Russia has proposed. As noted by Chinese experts, Russia’s approach seeks to upend the current international system, while China is working to increase its influence within it. This strategic divide is particularly relevant to economic stability, as China aims to preserve beneficial trade ties with the West.
The economic divergence has caused Chinese analysts to question the value of Russia as an economic and military ally. The prolonged war in Ukraine has raised concerns about the sustainability of Russia’s military power and the financial burden of ongoing conflict. Prominent Chinese scholars now suggest that closer ties with Russia could lead China into an economically disadvantageous position, especially as China continues to navigate its own economic challenges.
A Balancing Act Between the East and the West
In response to these concerns, China is focused on balancing its long-term partnership with Russia with the need to maintain strong relationships in the West. Analysts point out that Russia has benefitted from the US-China rivalry, positioning itself strategically without necessarily committing to China’s interests. This dynamic underscores the complexity of China’s relationship with Russia and the importance of China’s broader economic priorities.
Ultimately, as China evaluates its “no-limits” relationship with Russia, it is placing an emphasis on ensuring economic resilience and avoiding entanglements that could disrupt its ambitions on the world stage. Economic pragmatism, rather than ideological alignment, is shaping Beijing’s approach to its Russian partnership.
